The coronavirus outbreak has sickened more than 100,000 people on the globe, according to statements from health officials.
Many other cases are suspected but not confirmed.
As of March 12, 2020, at least 4600 people have died.
Total Confirmed
Total Deaths
Total Recovered
WHAT HAPPENED?
The outbreak is believed to have began in a seafood and poultry market in Wuhan, a city of 11 million people in central China.
Wuhan is a difficult place to contain an outbreak when the population of the city is more than that of NYC.
On an average day, 3,500 passengers take direct flights from Wuhan to cities in other countries.
The virus is readily transmitted from person to person, scientists believe. But how lethal the virus is and and whether it can be contained is unclear.
The below choropleth gives a timeline of the spread of the virus since it was first identified and confirmed.
Date: 2020-01-21
HOW CONTAGIOUS IS THE VIRUS?
The scale of an outbreak depends on how quickly and easily a virus is transmitted from person to person.
While research has just begun, scientists have estimated that each person with the new coronavirus could infect somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 people without effective containment measures.
If each person infected with the new coronavirus infects two to three others, that may be enough to sustain and accelerate an outbreak, if nothing is done to reduce it.
Here's how the new coronavirus spreads compared to common cold and seasonal flu.
If 1 person is infected with the coronavirus initially, after 3 cycles the affected count rises 233, while for common cold its 135 and for seasonal flu its 61.
The difference may seem small at lower cycles, but the results are a striking contrast when the cycles are increased: Total affected by coronavirus after 7 cycles is around 8000, compared to 2000 for common cold and 300 for seasonal flu.
HOW DEADLY IS THE VIRUS?
This is one of the most important factors in how damaging the outbreak will be, and one of the least understood.
Early indications suggest the fatality rate for this virus is considerably less than another coronavirus, MERS, which kills about 35 percent of people who become infected, and SARS, which kills about 10 percent.
Here’s how the new coronavirus compares with other infectious diseases: